It is perhaps fair to say that no one knows the future and yet sometimes we must act like we do. In order to strategize and plan, organizational leaders in the private and public sectors must peer into their crystal balls to anticipate and then shape the future in their favor. But how does the organizational leader do this? What tools are available to help them make well-informed decisions about that will put them on the optimal path for tomorrow? One available tool is the International Futures (IFs) forecasting model software, designed to help organizational leaders shape their futures.
The Authors of the International Futures Model
The IFs model was first designed in 1979 by Dr. Barry Hughes a professor of International Relations in the Graduate School of International Studies at the University of Denver. After three generations, Dr. Hughes was joined by Dr. Evan Hillebrand, a visiting professor in the Patterson School of Diplomacy at the University of Kentucky and a chief economist of the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA). Together they developed the fourth and fifth generations of the IFs forecasting model.
The Roots of the International Futures Model
Dr. Hughes built the initial IFs model after completing a comparative analysis of other world models presented by affiliates of an organization of called the Club of Rome in the 1970s. The Club of Rome, created in 1968, was a small international think tank group of professionals from the fields of diplomacy, industry, academia, and civil society which came together to raise awareness on important global development issues of the future.
The Purpose of the International Futures Model
The purpose of the IFs forecasting model is to help leaders see where the world is heading and perform causal analyses on computer run scenarios. Accordingly, the IFs model is a computer-based software application that allows users to anticipate future trends of human demographic, economic, environmental, and socio-political systems through the 21st century. It helps organizational leaders answer three basic questions concerning the future including
- Where do current changes appear to be taking us?
- What kind of future would we like to see?
- How much leverage do we have in shaping the future we want?
The Main Components of the International Futures Model
In order to help leaders answer these questions and others, the IFs model is based on eight major components including
- Domestic Socio-political
- International Political
- Population
- Economic
- Agriculture
- Energy
- Technology
- Environmental - Resources and Quality
The IFs model is built with the understanding that actions in one of the eight components will have a direct or indirect effect on each of the other seven areas. For instance, IFs uses complex formulas to show how a rise in HIV prevalence in one country might affect the GDP of that country and trade partners in both the short- and long-term. It will also show the impact of HIV prevalence to population factors including life expectancy rate, infant mortality rate, and agricultural factors such as food supply.
Users of the International Futures Model
Since 1980, the IFs model evolved through five generations to become a powerful tool for thinking about the future. From its inception until 2010, the IFs model was employed by such organizations as
- The European Commission for their TERRA project
- General Motors
- The United Nations Environment Program
- The U.S. National Intelligence Committee (NIC)
- The Strategic Assessment Group of the CIA
Sources:
Hughes, B. & Hillebrand, E. (2009). Exploring and Shaping International Futures. Paradigm Publishers
Eric Coggins - Eric Coggins is a doctoral student at Regent University's School of Global Leadership & Entrepreneurship. From 2000 to 2006, he worked as ...
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